Solid start to the system plays for the over/unders and got my 3rd push of the season (since we had 2 missed FT’s in the last 30 seconds in the Lakers game).

Overall record 22-17-3

UTA/MEM over 207

This isn’t a system play….it’s a system lean and a little more digging made me put it out today on a light card.  Memphis is 4-1 on the over when they are big road dogs (9+ points).  They are also 3-1 on the over when playing back to back games.  The only thing that made me pause on this one is that Memphis got outscored 33-7 in the 4th quarter in last night’s game.  I’m hoping for no carry over into tonight.

Big fat whiff on the Wizards last night.  But some good news!  We’ve got enough games this season now where my over/under system has kicked in……and it kicked out a couple plays tonight.

Overall record 21-17-2

Again, these are both system plays……so we’re one notch up from the drunk monkey throwing darts now.

PHI/SAS under 195.5

LAL/NJN over 193

Got a nice win with the Thunder holding serve at home.  I wish they could all be that easy!

Overall record 21-16-2

Wizards -3.5

Charlotte is a whopping 0-7 SU on the road.  However, they are coming off a 3 game win streak (all at home obviously) and seem to be playing well.  The Wizards have won 2 in a row and also seem to be over their cockiness from the return of Jamison.  Washington has had a tough home schedule so far this season and I like their chances at home to pull this one out by such a modest number against a team yet to win on the road.

Well….in hindsight….might have made some sense to pick my favorite few games from the Holiday trend.  But….moving on.  Hoping everyone’s turkey was juicy and delicious.

Overall record 20-16-2

Oklahoma City -5

Modest number…….OKC coming off extended rest…..good at home, but has barely played any home games so their record is skewed with losses to LAL and POR at home.  Milwaukee is on the tail end of a 4 game road trip….the day after Thanksgiving and have to play tomorrow night at home.  Seems like the perfect spot to back Durant and co. here.

No plays today….enjoy your Thanksgiving and watch some football!

We got back on the winning track last week. Not a great week, but a profitable week none the less. This week, you’ll be thankful that you purchased our NFL package after the winners come in as fast as Chris Johnson gets through a hole in the line off scrimmage.

***Scott W’s Picks (30-25 this season)(4-1 last week)

Cincinnati/Cleveland over 39.5 L
Buffalo +3.5 W
Atlanta -12 L
Kansas City/San Diego under 45.5 L
Seattle -3.5 W

2-3 this week

**Hollywood’s Picks (23-21 this season)(1-2 last week)

Cowboys -13.5 W
49ers -3 W
Patriots +3 Monday night

2-0 this week

**Ace’s Picks (22-24 this season)(3-2 last week)
SAN DIEGO (7-3) -13.5 W
CINCINNATI (7-3) -13.5 L
MINNESOTA (9-1) -10.5 W
DENVER (6-4) +6.5 W
NY JETS (4-6) -3.5 W

4-1 this week

Boy……it takes a good losing streak to appreciate how hard it is to win consistently against the spread.  Was nice to get one in the win column finally.

Overall record 18-13-2

I’ve got an interesting trend here on the day before Thanksgiving…..one that in which big home favorites (9+ points) have covered the spread at basically a 75% clip the past few years.  Am I dumb enough to blindly follow such an arbitrary trend that may or may not have any basis in reality?  Did you even have to ask?  And here’s why.  I think home teams playing the day before Thanksgiving are comfortable knowing that after the game they don’t have a plane ride after the game….if they’re flying somewhere for the holidays, it can be done quickly after the game if necessary.  Conversely, I think the visiting teams mail the game in if they fall behind early knowing they’ve got a long plane ride to get home after the game and then get to whereever they need to go for the holiday. 

We’re going to call this trend……. Holiday Home Cooking!  And if you were wondering if I checked to see if it works on the day before Christmas Eve…..Yes…..yes it does.

So here’s the 5 plays that qualify for my Holiday Home Cooking Trend……

Celtics -12.5

Magic -9.5

Suns -10.5

Trailblazers -13.5

Spurs -13.5

Ummm……yeah.  You know you’ve hit rock bottom when you whiff on an under by the 3rd quarter.   That’s as bad as it gets.  Hopefully, that was the washout needed to get back onto some wins.

Overall record 17-13-2

Toronto -5

Toronto has played very well at home……winning all their games except for the 2 they’ve played against Orlando.  And guess what?  Indiana is no Orlando.   The Raptors are 4-2 at home SU with the only win less than double digits being against the Heat (by 7).   Indiana has had home cooking the first month of the season with only 4 road games thus far…..their only wins?  New Jersey and New York.  Their other 2 road games were double digit losses.

Well, I’ll be crossing the Knicks off my list of teams I can successfully handicap.  Phoenix was the first.  By the end of the year, I’ll be down to one team…..on the bright side, that will make handicapping a lot easier.

Overall record 17-12-2

POR/MIL under 191

These teams are #2 and #3 in defensive efficiency and middle of the pack in offensive efficiency.  Portland is second to last in possessions per game.  How’s that for in depth analysis?  Keeping it simple to try to break out of this losing streak.

Feel free to give me a clothesline if I walk by you after trying to back a team on a 13 game losing streak again.  Thank you.

Overall record 17-11-2

Boston -9

Fading the Knicks again?  Yes…..yes, I am.  I am 100% guaranteeing a Boston double digit victory in this one.  How can I be so sure?  Well, I can’t.  But it sounds impressive and I really like this game.  If I was a tout, I would call it my 50,000 star lock of the month and pretend that the refs have been paid off for it to come in.