Got a nice tomahawk dunk last night as the Thunder brought the Wizards back to reality.  Sometimes I wonder if I shouldn’t just drop the stats analysis and just read the post game comments and fade the team that is making the most cocky, nonsensical quips.

Overall record 17-10-2

NJ Nets -1.5

Yes….you see that right…..the Nets are favored….the 0 for the season Nets.  Why am I backing them?  Well….besides I’m an idiot…..this really is their only shot….if they don’t win this one, they start their West Coast road trip next and have about a 1% chance of winning any of those games the way they are playing.  They actually played well against Milwaukee in the 1st half….and then completely fell apart in the 2nd.  I think the fear of going 0 for November if they lose this one will be motivation enough to beat the lowly Knicks.

Seriously disappointing…..things would have been fine if someone had told Phoenix they actually have to rebound to win a game!  The over was close on the final score, but really wasn’t that close.  2 whiffs last night.

Overall record 16-10-2

Oklahoma City -2.5

Man….I know Jamison is back for the Wizards, but wow….I don’t get this line.  Washington has lost all of their road games by over 10 points so far this year and it’s not like OKC is any slouch….especially at home.  Listening to the Wizards after their big win against Cleveland…..they sounded like they thought they were now unstoppable with Jamison….really?  Sounds like the overconfidence we need to take advantage of!

Well….wouldn’t call that a 50/50 last night….under seemed fairly safe until the very end…..so let’s call it a slam dunk…..an awkward white guy dunk throwing one off the back iron….then off the front and rattling home.  Done and done.

Overall record 16-8-2

Phoenix -6

Phoenix/NO over 216.5

I wish I had some great analysis for you here, but no Chris Paul means less stress on Nash on the defensive end and more freedom to run the show on O.  New Orleans has gone significantly over the number in the 2 games without Paul.  My only worry is if the new coach decides to really slow it up against the Suns.  Even so….in Phoenix’s last 5 games, both teams have gone into triple digits…..and in their entire season, only 2 teams have failed to score 100 against them.

Not a good week for the hitmen as we fired blanks. We’re confident of a rebound this week. Hollywood is so confident he guarantees a 3-0 week! Scooter’s barking up a tree by taking all dogs this week.

***Scott W’s Picks (26-24 this season)(1-4 last week)

San Francisco +6.5 W
Seattle +10.5 L
Washington +11 W
St Louis +9 W
Oakland +9.5 W

4-1 this week

**Hollywood’s Picks (22-19 this season)(1-3 last week)
Detroit -3.5 L
Indianapolis PK W
Atlanta/NY Giants under 46 L

1-2 this week

**Ace’s Picks (19-22 this season)(2-3 last week)
San Diego (6-3) -2.5 W
Detroit (1-8) -3.5 L
Indianapolis (9-0) +0.5 W
Minnesota (8-1) -10.5 W
Cincinnati (7-2) -9.5 L

3-2 this week

Got a slow developing slam dunk last night as Denver toyed with the Raptors for 2 quarters, then put their foot down and closed them out.  Finally!  That felt good.

Overall record 15-8-2

MIL/NJ under 187

Low, low numbers across the board from these 2 teams.  Recently Milwaukee has been going over the total, but New Jersey is an under machine at this point with 6 unders in a row.  I’m going to ride this wave as this is a relatively high total that I think is inflated due to Milwaukee’s last couple games well into the triple digits.

Let me take a minute and talk about the importance of shopping lines…….ok, ok, I’ll stop.  I’m even annoying myself here.  But now we’re up to 4 games out of 24 that have come within a 1/2 point of my posted lines (and yes, everyone should have gotten that game at 3.5)!

Overall record 14-8-2

Denver -8.5

The Nuggets have only played 3 home games so far winning all by at least 9 points.  They also have 3 days of rest and Toronto is in the midst of their west coast road trip.  So I’m fading Toronto again on the road…..sooner or later I have to win, right?

Let’s talk quickly about the importance of shopping lines.  The lines were so good on that Dallas/Detroit game that both the side and the total came in at 1/2 point off what I posted.  Now, did I win both of those bets with my book?  Of course I did!  I got the Dal/Det total at 186.5 and went 2-1 last night even though my record will show 1-2.  By my count, that’s now 3 games that have landed either on or within 1/2 point of my posted lines.  That’s 3 out of 23 games!  That’s a huge swing and very important to keep in mind as we grind through the rest of the season.

Overall record 14-8-1

Atlanta -4

This a huge matchup…..both team are red hot and on fire.  I’ll spare the stat crunching and just say that Portland is at the tail end of a very successful road trip and Atlanta has beaten both Denver and Boston over the past few games.  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and I like Atlanta as the home team to pull through here.

I’ll save everyone the trouble……Booooo!!!  This losing streak is no fun……2 whiffs in a row.  And I really thought that over was a virtually certainty (and apparently a lot of others too as the line moved from 201.5 all the way to about 206). 

Overall 13-6-1

Going with a Sunday trifecta….of course the traditional Sunday under and a couple of sides.

Dallas -4.5

Detroit/Dallas under 184.5

Detroit has been terrible on back to backs so far this year losing SU and ATS both times it has occurred.  I also like that they’re coming off a big road win at Washington tonight too……should be primed for a letdown as Dallas had Saturday night off.  I really like this under as Dallas has hardly been scoring on this road trip and Detroit (other than tonight’s game) has been well under triple digits as well.

Phoenix -7

I feel like a lot of my plays have been for or against Phoenix so far this year.  Teams with matchup tendencies are usually my favorites and the Suns definitely fit that bill.  Phoenix has always played great at home against teams that give up a lot of points….which makes sense since offense is their thing.  Few teams can keep up with them offensively…..usually only great defensive teams give them troubles….and Toronto is not a great defensive team.

A whiff last night…..I know it ended up relatively close, but that total was doomed at halftime. 

Overall record 13-5-1

Memphis/Minnesota over 201.5

Saturday night over time!  This is my favorite of the night….here’s why in a cliched mathematics formula (with words instead of numbers!  Can you believe it?……yes, I’m that clever).

2 teams in the top 10 in possessions per game + 2 teams in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency + reasonable total = easy over winner

Got an easy winner last night with the Lakers handling the Suns with ease. 

Overall record 13-4-1

PHI/UTA under 198.5

Philly is averaging 96 at home, Utah 93 on the road….they both give up a hair over 100 on their home/road splits.   Where it gets a little dicey is that both Philly and Utah are near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency…..but Utah’s been putting up rather low numbers lately and I’ve got a feeling neither team hits the century mark tonight.