NFL Division Championships
Last week, we once again went 5-3, but only won a few units because we lost some of our big ones. That also includes my last minute switch from the Giants to the Packers. Oops.
Baltimore @ New England (-7, o/u 50.5)
They say defense wins championships, but I feel you need to be able to score points to win championships. However, no matter how good the offense, you can’t get away with a bad defense. The Packers were a prime example last week and this week, New England will show that.
I like Baltimore to win outright this week on the back of Ray Rice. He had trouble going against the tough Houston defense, but he should have a field day against New England. As he goes, so does the offense. If New England chooses to stack the box, then Flacco has Boldin, Evans and Smith on the outside to make them pay. I’m not a big fan of Joe Flacco, but I trust him not to turn the ball over, allowing the Ravens to win with their defense.
My Pick: Baltimore +7 (3 units), under 50.5 (2 units) Win/WIn +5 units
NY Giants @ San Francisco (-2, o/u 42)
Like the Packers last year, the Giants have momentum, a strong offense, and a play making defense. Not even a very successful San Fran team can stop them. The two things I like most in the playoffs are momentum and experience. San Fran is probably just happy to escape last week with a big win over New Orleans. They did their celebrating. The Giants took their win over Green Bay in stride and realize that’s not a big accomplishment. The Super Bowl is the accomplishment they want.
San Fran’s only chance is to get pressure on Eli. Something the Packers rarely did, but when they did, he struggled. I don’t trust Alex Smith, and he lacks the weapons to work with. You stop Davis and slow down Gore and they will have trouble scoring.
My Pick: NY Giants +2 (2 units), over 42 (1 unit) Win/Lose +0.9
Championship round: 3-1 +5.9 units
Playoffs: 13-7
Units: +5.3 units
