NFL playoffs – divisional round
Last week we went 5-3, but unfortunately, we lost .9 units as our stronger plays did not come through. A lot of high spreads this week, which makes picking a little more difficult.
New Orleans @ San Francisco (+4, o/u 47)
The Saints are a dome team and have struggled on grass. They lost at Tampa and barely won at Tennessee, Carolina and Jacksonville. The 49ers have a great defense, but that’s predicated on stopping the run. When they’ve played teams with a good passing offense, they’ve given up some points.
This game really has me stumped, but I’m taking the home team who had a bye week. The Saints struggles on grass will continue and the 49ers pass rush will be the difference. Frank Gore could be huge.
Pick: San Francisco +4 (2 units) under 47 (1 unit) Win/Loss (+0.9 units)
Denver @ New England (-13.5 o/u 50)
This one is a slam dunk for New England. They won easily in Denver a few weeks ago. They’ve seen Tebow’s offense once, so Bellichek will definitely have a game plan to stop it. New England gets home field this time. No Eric Decker hurts Denver’s offense as Thomas can be double teamed now. The only slight scare I have is that Denver had 200 yds rushing in the first quarter when McGahee was healthy last meeting. He got hurt, and denver’s running attack stalled. Denver will need to rush for 250+ yds in order to stay within 10.
Pick: New England -13.5 (3 units), over 50 (1 unit) Win/Win +4 units
Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5 o/u 36)
Baltimore won the first match up quite easily shutting down the Schaub-less Texans offense. This one should be the same. I don’t trust rookie qb’s in the playoffs and Foster won’t be able to carry the offense against the stingy Ravens. Look for Rice and Smith to have big games as the Ravens run away with this one.
Pick: Baltimore -7.5 (3 units) under 36 (1 unit) Loss/Win -2.3
New York @ Green Bay (-7.5 o/u 53)
I know how hard it is to repeat in the NFL, but I truly believe that only the Packers can beat the Packers this year. Dropped passes and penalties are why they lost in KC. The Giants probably have the best resume to beat Green Bay. They have a strong pass rush and a potent offense that can score points with Rodgers and crew. The Packers defense has thrived on turnovers, and they play much better at home. I expect the Packers to win, but the safe play is to take the points, as it should be very similar to the first meeting between the two teams.
*****Edited 9:15 am Sunday*****
I’ve done a complete 180 on this game. The more I think about it, the more I love a Packers blow out. Maybe I’m just a homer, but here’s my thoughts. The grass will slow down the Giants pass rush. Watching the games yesterday, I under estimated the impact a home crowd has on it’s own defense. And Rodgers is just too damn good. The Packers are as healthy as they’ve been all year. I think they win this by 20+. I am now taking the Packers -7.5 for 3 units.
Pick: NY Giants +7.5 (1 unit) over 53 (3 units) Loss/Win -2.3
This week: 5-3 +0.3 units
Playoffs: 10-6
Units: -0.6 units
