Despite their win over Baltimore, I’m still a New England doubter. Their lack of defense and lack of a down the field offense will finally catch up to them. Gronkowski not being 100% doesn’t help them either.
I don’t expect the Giants to get a ton of hits on Brady because he gets rid of the ball so quick. However, I do expect the Giants to knock the Patriot receivers off their routes just as they did with the Packers. I don’t see New England scoring more than 21, and I definitely don’t see their defense holding the Giants under 27.

My prediction: NY Giants 34 New England 17 (3 units on NYG ML +115) 1 unit under 54

The best way to make money on the Super Bowl is through proposition bets. If you take your time and look through them, you can find some good value bets. Especially in the cross-sport props.
I didn’t post any prop plays last year because my beloved Packers were in the big game and I was busy working on getting tickets to Dallas. However, in the 2 previous years, I went 8-2 (4-1 each year) on my posted prop plays. Here are my best value plays for this year (odds according to sportsbook.com)

1> Ray Allen made 3 pts +.5 over Brady td passes…even money
As you can tell with my game writeup, I don’t expect a lot out of Brady, At most, he will get 3 TD passes. Ray Allen averages over 2 made 3′s per game and can easily go off for 5 or 6. If he does that, this prop is a lock. Even if he only gets 2, you may win and at worst get a push. Since his return from injury, Allen has 8 3′s in 3 games. Only 3 times this year has he had only 1 made 3. I love props like this one, where you can have it wrapped up before the Super Bowl even starts.

2> Will Ochocinco catch a pass? YES …even money
It’s been nice seeing Chad fail this season. However, New England needs a deep threat, and I imagine they will have a few set plays for Chad to get down the field. Let’s just hope he catches one of them. I don’t expect him to play a lot, but I do expect him to be a mini factor. He also wouldn’t be a bad option if you want to bet on the first TD at his 40:1 odds.

3> Shortest TD over 1.5 yds …+115
Both teams are passing teams, so I doubt there will be any short yardage situations from the 1 yd line. The only way this will happen is if there’s a pass interference in the end zone. If it does come down to short yardage, I like Wilfork’s ability to penetrate to prevent the Giants from getting a short TD. I’m not worried about the Pats getting a 1 yd td. The +115 on this side is what makes it a top 5 play for me.

4> Deion Branch over 3 receptions …-105
Deion comes up big in the big games. He’s a security blanket for Brady and with all the focus on Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker, Deion should get some favorable match ups. He’s a fomer super bowl MVP and he’s had 2 weeks to let his sore groin heal. I also like the prop of over 40.5 yds for him, but that has more juice, so my play is on his receptions.

5> under 4 total sacks …+120
I’ve seen this total at 4.5 in some places, which makes this an even better play. However, I’ll take the +120 with the risk of 4 sacks being a push. The Patriots lack a pass rush, so I don’t see them getting any more than 1 sack. The Giants have a great pass rush, but with New England’s double TE sets and Brady’s quick reads, I don’t think they will get to Brady.

Good luck on the game! I run my own proposition pool on the game, so if you’re interested in joining, send me an email at saw111671@yahoo.com

Min/Car under 48 – Carolina has been in a shoot out every week. Newton and company are tough to stop. I just don’t see Minnesota being able to score 20+ against this defense and I doubt Carolina will get more than 28. WIN

Baltimore -13 – Monday they ran into a buzzsaw Jags defense. Rice should tear apart the Cardinals defense. Baltimore may win by 30. LOSS

Detroit -3 – Tim Tebow stinks, and he proved it last week. The Lions will be too far ahead for Tebow to will his team to victory. Without McGahee to run the ball, the Broncos will have a tough time moving the ball. WIN

Cle/SF under 38.5 – Cleveland showed last week, they don’t have much of an offense. They will face a tougher defense this week. San Fran doesn’t have the type of offense to get 30 points, so I feel confident in this over. Add to that the tough wind conditions usually found in SF. WIN

Philadelphia -3.5 – Reid never loses after a bye week. The Eagles, as over hyped as they are, still have a much better team than Dallas. Vick should have a field day against the Cowboys secondary. As long as the Eagles slow down the shooting star known as DeMarco Murray, they should come out on top. WIN

San Diego -3.5 (play of the week) – Get this line in early, because it’s bound to be a public play. San Diego has been, and still are the class of the NFC West. KC had a perfect storm last week facing 2 qb’s who weren’t ready to be on an NFL field. San Diego is burning from their loss to the Jets when they failed to show up in the 2nd half. Look for Rivers to regain his old form. LOSS

This week: 4-2
Overall: 23-18-2

Phil -1.5 (play of the week) – Vick and crew are sick of losing. Redskins can run the ball, but not well enough to outscore the eagles. As ugly as the Eagles defense has been this year, this one could be just as ugly for the Redskins. WIN

Detroit -4.5 – this is a prime spot for a Detroit let down, but I think SF has the worse spot. They were on the east coast two weeks in a row…home for one…now back in the eastern time zone. Most importantly, their offensive line can’t contain the Lions front 4 and they are also short on WR’s. Look for the Detroit bandwagon to keep rolling on.
LOSS
Car/Atl over 50.5 – Carolina has been in shootouts every week. Falcons lost Julio Jones, but still have plenty of weapons on offense. LOSS

Balt -8 - Houston will continue to struggle without their top WR. Now they must also deal with the loss of Mario Williams. Houston’s dream season is being bombarded with injuries. Look for the Ravens and Ray Rice to roll. WIN

Tampa Bay +4.5 – Saints are on their 3rd straight road trip, which is never an easy thing for NFL teams to do. The Saints are also much worse on grass. Tampa has a lot to prove after being humbled by the 49ers last week when they had short rest. I believe Tampa will win outright. WIN

Mia/NYJ under 42.5 – Miami has no punch on offense, which is what the Jets defense will prey upon. I don’t see the Jets scoring more than 35, so as much as I like the Jets, I think the under is the better play in case the Jets stagnant offense continues. WIN

This week: 4-2
overall: 15-14-2

Chicago -6 – Newton has been impressive, but against the cover 2 of the Bears, you need accuracy and patience. Newton has struggled when teams drop 7-8, so it could be a long day for him. Under may be the better play, but we’re taking the Bears who are a strong home team. LOSS

New Orleans -7 – Saints offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Even though MJD may have a big day on the ground, Jacksonville doesn’t have the offensive fire power to stick with the Saints. WIN

Philadelphia -9 – This team is over hyped, and there’s a definitely game plan to limit Vick. Bring a lot of rushers from the outside and hit him often. He’s starting to hear footsteps in the pocket. However, the 49ers o-line is swiss cheese and Smith is the qb that will be running for his life. Gore is their only play maker and he’s banged up. Look for the Eagles to start living up to the hype with an easy win at home. LOSS

St Louis +2.5 – I like home dogs. The Rams have played decent against a very tough schedule. The skins are coming off a tough Monday night loss and are playing a non-division foe, so it’s not an important game for them. Look for the young Rams to bring home the victory.
LOSS
New England -5 (play of the week) – Brady is drooling over the weak secondary of Oakland. As long as his o-line gives him average protection, he will carve apart this secondary. McFadden could stay hot and keep Brady off the field. However, New England is often tough coming off a loss and Oakland is not good enough to beat a focused Bellicheck team.
WIN

This week: 2-3
Overall: 8-10-2

Washington -4 loss

Green Bay -10 loss

Pittsbugh -14 (play of the week) win

Indianapolis +2 (we suggest you take the ML) loss

Dallas -3 push

this week 1-3-1
season: 2-6-2

Week 2 College picks (2-3 this year):

Baylor +21.5 L

Arkansas/Georgia westernunion florence over 54.5 W

East Carolina +19.5 L

North Carolina -1.5 order diet pills L

UConn/Temple under 46.5 W

week 2 record: 2-3 (4-6 season)

NFL week 2 (1-3-1 on the year):

Atlanta -6.5 (play of the month…double units) W W

Green Bay -13.5 W

Chicago/Dallas over 40.5 W

Pittsburgh/Tennessee under differin order 37.5 W

Oakland -4.5 L

week 2 NFL record: 5-1 (6-4-1 season)

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