It’s been a successful post season so far even though some of our bigger plays have not come through. So far we are 13-7 for +5.3 units. Here are my thoughts on the big game:

Despite their win over Baltimore, I’m still a New England doubter. Their lack of defense and lack of a down the field offense will finally catch up to them. Gronkowski not being 100% doesn’t help them either.
I don’t expect the Giants to get a ton of hits on Brady because he gets rid of the ball so quick. However, I do expect the Giants to knock the Patriot receivers off their routes just as they did with the Packers. I don’t see New England scoring more than 21, and I definitely don’t see their defense holding the Giants under 27.

My prediction: NY Giants 34 New England 17 (3 units on NYG ML +115) 1 unit under 54

The best way to make money on the Super Bowl is through proposition bets. If you take your time and look through them, you can find some good value bets. Especially in the cross-sport props.
I didn’t post any prop plays last year because my beloved Packers were in the big game and I was busy working on getting tickets to Dallas. However, in the 2 previous years, I went 8-2 (4-1 each year) on my posted prop plays. Here are my best value plays for this year (odds according to sportsbook.com)

1> Ray Allen made 3 pts +.5 over Brady td passes…even money
As you can tell with my game writeup, I don’t expect a lot out of Brady, At most, he will get 3 TD passes. Ray Allen averages over 2 made 3′s per game and can easily go off for 5 or 6. If he does that, this prop is a lock. Even if he only gets 2, you may win and at worst get a push. Since his return from injury, Allen has 8 3′s in 3 games. Only 3 times this year has he had only 1 made 3. I love props like this one, where you can have it wrapped up before the Super Bowl even starts.

2> Will Ochocinco catch a pass? YES …even money
It’s been nice seeing Chad fail this season. However, New England needs a deep threat, and I imagine they will have a few set plays for Chad to get down the field. Let’s just hope he catches one of them. I don’t expect him to play a lot, but I do expect him to be a mini factor. He also wouldn’t be a bad option if you want to bet on the first TD at his 40:1 odds.

3> Shortest TD over 1.5 yds …+115
Both teams are passing teams, so I doubt there will be any short yardage situations from the 1 yd line. The only way this will happen is if there’s a pass interference in the end zone. If it does come down to short yardage, I like Wilfork’s ability to penetrate to prevent the Giants from getting a short TD. I’m not worried about the Pats getting a 1 yd td. The +115 on this side is what makes it a top 5 play for me.

4> Deion Branch over 3 receptions …-105
Deion comes up big in the big games. He’s a security blanket for Brady and with all the focus on Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker, Deion should get some favorable match ups. He’s a fomer super bowl MVP and he’s had 2 weeks to let his sore groin heal. I also like the prop of over 40.5 yds for him, but that has more juice, so my play is on his receptions.

5> under 4 total sacks …+120
I’ve seen this total at 4.5 in some places, which makes this an even better play. However, I’ll take the +120 with the risk of 4 sacks being a push. The Patriots lack a pass rush, so I don’t see them getting any more than 1 sack. The Giants have a great pass rush, but with New England’s double TE sets and Brady’s quick reads, I don’t think they will get to Brady.

Good luck on the game! I run my own proposition pool on the game, so if you’re interested in joining, send me an email at saw111671@yahoo.com

Last week, we once again went 5-3, but only won a few units because we lost some of our big ones. That also includes my last minute switch from the Giants to the Packers. Oops.

Baltimore @ New England (-7, o/u 50.5)

They say defense wins championships, but I feel you need to be able to score points to win championships. However, no matter how good the offense, you can’t get away with a bad defense. The Packers were a prime example last week and this week, New England will show that.
I like Baltimore to win outright this week on the back of Ray Rice. He had trouble going against the tough Houston defense, but he should have a field day against New England. As he goes, so does the offense. If New England chooses to stack the box, then Flacco has Boldin, Evans and Smith on the outside to make them pay. I’m not a big fan of Joe Flacco, but I trust him not to turn the ball over, allowing the Ravens to win with their defense.

My Pick: Baltimore +7 (3 units), under 50.5 (2 units) Win/WIn +5 units

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-2, o/u 42)

Like the Packers last year, the Giants have momentum, a strong offense, and a play making defense. Not even a very successful San Fran team can stop them. The two things I like most in the playoffs are momentum and experience. San Fran is probably just happy to escape last week with a big win over New Orleans. They did their celebrating. The Giants took their win over Green Bay in stride and realize that’s not a big accomplishment. The Super Bowl is the accomplishment they want.
San Fran’s only chance is to get pressure on Eli. Something the Packers rarely did, but when they did, he struggled. I don’t trust Alex Smith, and he lacks the weapons to work with. You stop Davis and slow down Gore and they will have trouble scoring.

My Pick: NY Giants +2 (2 units), over 42 (1 unit) Win/Lose +0.9

Championship round: 3-1 +5.9 units
Playoffs: 13-7
Units: +5.3 units

Last week we went 5-3, but unfortunately, we lost .9 units as our stronger plays did not come through. A lot of high spreads this week, which makes picking a little more difficult.

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+4, o/u 47)

The Saints are a dome team and have struggled on grass. They lost at Tampa and barely won at Tennessee, Carolina and Jacksonville. The 49ers have a great defense, but that’s predicated on stopping the run. When they’ve played teams with a good passing offense, they’ve given up some points.
This game really has me stumped, but I’m taking the home team who had a bye week. The Saints struggles on grass will continue and the 49ers pass rush will be the difference. Frank Gore could be huge.

Pick: San Francisco +4 (2 units) under 47 (1 unit) Win/Loss (+0.9 units)

Denver @ New England (-13.5 o/u 50)

This one is a slam dunk for New England. They won easily in Denver a few weeks ago. They’ve seen Tebow’s offense once, so Bellichek will definitely have a game plan to stop it. New England gets home field this time. No Eric Decker hurts Denver’s offense as Thomas can be double teamed now. The only slight scare I have is that Denver had 200 yds rushing in the first quarter when McGahee was healthy last meeting. He got hurt, and denver’s running attack stalled. Denver will need to rush for 250+ yds in order to stay within 10.

Pick: New England -13.5 (3 units), over 50 (1 unit) Win/Win +4 units

Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5 o/u 36)

Baltimore won the first match up quite easily shutting down the Schaub-less Texans offense. This one should be the same. I don’t trust rookie qb’s in the playoffs and Foster won’t be able to carry the offense against the stingy Ravens. Look for Rice and Smith to have big games as the Ravens run away with this one.

Pick: Baltimore -7.5 (3 units) under 36 (1 unit) Loss/Win -2.3

New York @ Green Bay (-7.5 o/u 53)

I know how hard it is to repeat in the NFL, but I truly believe that only the Packers can beat the Packers this year. Dropped passes and penalties are why they lost in KC. The Giants probably have the best resume to beat Green Bay. They have a strong pass rush and a potent offense that can score points with Rodgers and crew. The Packers defense has thrived on turnovers, and they play much better at home. I expect the Packers to win, but the safe play is to take the points, as it should be very similar to the first meeting between the two teams.
*****Edited 9:15 am Sunday*****
I’ve done a complete 180 on this game. The more I think about it, the more I love a Packers blow out. Maybe I’m just a homer, but here’s my thoughts. The grass will slow down the Giants pass rush. Watching the games yesterday, I under estimated the impact a home crowd has on it’s own defense. And Rodgers is just too damn good. The Packers are as healthy as they’ve been all year. I think they win this by 20+. I am now taking the Packers -7.5 for 3 units.

Pick: NY Giants +7.5 (1 unit) over 53 (3 units) Loss/Win -2.3

This week: 5-3 +0.3 units
Playoffs: 10-6
Units: -0.6 units

The playoffs are about to start, and I’ve decided to do a writeup for each game of this playoffs and will make plays on each game. I will assign the plays as 1-2-3 units. 1 unit plays mean I’m just making a pick because I have to. 2 unit plays mean I lean towards the pick, but not super confident. 3 unit plays means it’s a solid play and I’d put a lot of my own money on the line for it.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-4, o/u 38)

This is a tough one to call, because both teams have rookie qb’s. Cincinnati has the advantage that Dalton has started all season, and he is not phased by a big stage. Yates is a completely unknown as he’s not asked to do much, and he really hasn’t done much. Houston has made it this far based on running the ball and playing good defense. I give them a slight edge because of this. Neither team has a recent playoff track record, so I just like the under.

Houston -4 (1 unit) under 38 (3 units) Win/Loss net -2.3

Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5, o/u 59.5)

Everyone is expecting a shootout. Last time these two played, it was only 38-17. Detroit played well, but hurt themselves with foolish penalties. New Orleans took advantage and pulled away late. As they showed last week against Green Bay, Detroit has a brutal secondary. If their front 4 can’t create pressure, it will be a field day for Brees. Detroit has not won against a good team this year, and they have struggled scoring points in those games (with the exception of last week against Green Bay who sat Woodson and Matthews). New Orleans could score 40 if they want to. I don’t see Detroit getting 20. The total is a ridiculously high number for any game, much less a playoff game.

New Orleans -10.5 (2 units) under 59.5 (3 units) Win/Loss net -1.3

Atlanta @ NY Giants (-3, o/u 47.5)

I see this game as being a shootout. Atlanta does not have a very good defense and the Giants have plenty of offensive weapons to exploit the weak defense. Atlanta has only played 3 outdoor games this year, losing to Chicago and Tampa and beating Carolina. All of these road games had warm temperatures. The Giants are getting healthy on the defensive front line which should give Ryan credit. The public appears to be on Atlanta, but the Falcons have not shown me anything since getting blown out at home in the playoffs last season.

NY Giants (2 units) over 47.5 (3 units) Win/Loss -1.3

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+8.5, o/u 33.5)

This is quite the interesting match up. The public knows how bad Tebow is at qb, and Pittsburgh has the reputation of having a great defense, so you expect a blowout. The home team being a huge underdog shows that. However, this line has actually moved down during the week. Which means the smart bettors like me, are going with Denver. Pittsburgh has a great pass defense because of their complicated blitz schemes. However, they are just average against the run. And due to a freak blood disorder, they’ll be missing their hard hitting safety and unsung hero of the defense, Ryan Clark. Add to that the loss of Mendenhall and a gimpy Big Ben. The Steelers will have to throw the ball to win. I don’t think Denver will have trouble scoring points as long as McGahee stays healthy all game. I’m still not convinced Denver can win, but it wouldn’t surprise me. This is very similar to the New Orleans/Seattle game last year in the first round when Seattle pulled off the big upset.

Denver +8.5 (2 units) over 33.5 (2 units) Win/Win +4

Wild card record: 5-3
units won/lost: -0.9

Our last shot to get to the 57% mark for the season. The sign of great handicapping. Week 17 is a crap shoot as you don’t know who’s playing hard and who’s checked out for the season. Therefore, I suggest you scale back on your units played this week.

Chicago/Minn under 41 – Both teams are decimated with injuries on offense. Only turnovers and special teams will get this total over. WIN

Indy/Jacksonville over 37.5 – Jacksonville can’t stop the pass, and Indy can throw. Indy can’t stop the run on the road and Jacksonville relies on the run. With 2 bottom dwelling teams, it’s a good recipe for a shootout and both have nothing to lose. LOSS

Jets +2.5 – Jets need a win and are a better team than the dolphins. Miami is playing well and the Jets are overrated because they have a bad qb, but I still expect them to win this one handily. WIN

Balt/Cin under 39 – Both teams have good defenses and in a game with big importance to both, the total tends to be under. Cincy has struggled scoring against good defenses. Baltimore will have trouble passing without Boldin. Cincy will be able to key on Smith and they lack another WR. This is my favorite play of the week! LOSS

San Diego +3 – You won’t need the points. Oakland still lacks offensive weapons due to injury. San Diego has played well of late, not including last week. Chargers would like nothing more than to keep Oakland out of the playoffs, and they will. WIN

this week: 3-2
Season: 54-41-4 (57%)

Just like last year, we’re finishing with a flury. 11-3-1 in the past two weeks to get our season record close to our goal of 57%.

Houston -6 Indy got their win out of the way last week. Houston is too strong defensively and running the ball. This should be a 2 TD game. Look for Foster and Tate to total over 200 yds and at least 3 TD’s Loss

NY Giants +3 Just like the Patriots last week, all of our handicappers are on the Giants this week. They are clearly the better team because of the QB position. I don’t think Eli is an elite QB (only brees, brady and rodgers are), but he’s good. Mark Sanchez is not. The Giants had their wakeup call last week. I see the Giants winning outright. Win

Denver -3 We’ll keep fading the Bills each week because of their terrible defense. Look for Denver to run up and down the field and win easily just as Miami did for us last week. Loss

Philadelphia +1.5 Another team that I plan to ride through the end of the season. All of their offensive weapons are healthy, so they can now outscore teams. Also, their run defense has gotten better, in part because they’ve been able to get early leads. Romo’s hot streak ends here. Win

Pittsburgh -12.5 I haven’t seen a line on this game yet, but no line is high enough. I don’t know why they wait to see if Big Ben will play. He always answers the bell. Mendenhall should run wild on the rams poor run defense. I see a 27-3 type game here. I will update the line once I see one. Win

This week: 3-2
Season: 51-39-4 (57%)

Just like last year, we are heating up in December. Our 5-2 record last week got us closer to our goal of 56% on the season. For this week’s edition of picks, we want to wish a happy birthday week to Mike Bublitz. Nothing but winners for his birthday week.

Atlanta -12.5 (Thursday) – Don’t let Jacksonville’s big win last week fool you. They are not a good team. Their secondary is terrible, so look for Matt Ryan to have a field day. Jacksonville’s only offense is MJD, and Atlanta gives up less than 3 ypc at home this season. This line opened at 11 and keeps going up. Confirmation that this is an obvious play. Win

Dallas -7 (Saturday) – Typically road favorites aren’t a good play in the NFL. Dallas has all their weapons healthy on offense and Tampa hasn’t been able to stop anyone the past few months. The Bucs don’t have the offensive firepower to stay with Dallas.
Win
New Orleans/Minnesota over 51 – The Saints were going to be my big play due to Minnesota’s secondary being so bad. However, being on the road, I decided the over was the safer play here. Minnesota has been over 20 points in all home games. The Saints should score at least 30 against the Vikings secondary. Win

Indianapolis +6.5 The Colts have to win sometime don’t they? They’ve played pretty good the past few weeks against some very good teams (New England and Baltimore). I don’t think you’ll need the points, but in case Chris Johnson has a big day and Tennessee pulls out the close victory, take the points. Win

Carolina +6.5 – The Panthers defense has let them down lately. Houston is on a roll, but now that they clinched a first round bye, this game doesn’t mean as much to them. Houston’s been winning with defense, and they will be without their guru (Wade Phillips) this week. I think this game will be decided by a fg, so take the points.
Win
Detroit -1 Raiders are another team with a weak secondary. Palmer has been an interception machine. The way to beat detroit is to run outside and wear out their defensive line. Michael Bush is a between the tackles runner, which plays into Detroit’s hands. Watch the Lions win and hear us roar! Push

New England -6.5 All our cappers had this as a play, so it’s our play of the week. I’m having some doubts because of New England’s failure to stop the run. If Denver can run the ball effectively, they have a chance. However, we are not afraid of Tebow! He’s still the worst passing qb in the league. It works to his advantage, because the other team can’t catch his passes either. So far, nobody has been able to get up at least 14 on Denver. New England has the offense to do so. This could be a blowout, but McGahee will probably keep it within 14. Win

Baltimore -2.5 The Chargers have shown to be a bad team this year. They’ve beat up on some of the worst teams in football the past few weeks. The Ravens will have Rivers running for his life and I’m sure turnovers will be a plenty. Baltimore is by far the better team, and with this low number, it’s a good play. Loss

This week: 6-1-1
Season: 48-37-4 (56%)

It’s been an unusually down NFL season for us. We’re still over .500 and have 4 weeks to get up to our goal of 57%.

Philadelphia +3 - Vick is back and they need it. Not being able to stop the run, they need offensive production to win. Miami is decent at running the ball, but I don’t think Reggie Bush is enough to beat the Eagles. Maclin is also back, putting the offense back at full speed. Might be some early rust, but look for them to take care of business in the 2nd half. Win

Houston +3 – Texan have been winning by running the ball and playing great defense. Cincinnati has been struggling lately against division foes. I look for their struggles to continue. Despite their qb injuries, the Texans remain one of the top 3 teams in the AFC in my opinion. Win

KC/NYJ under 36.5 - With no QB, I don’t expect the Chiefs to score more than 6 points. The Jets don’t have a good enough offense to score 30. So to me, the under is the obvious play here. Loss

Detroit -10 – Minnesota has no secondary left. Their top RB is hobbled and now their only QB has a hip pointer. If Tebow can throw for 200+ yards against this secondary, imagine what Stafford and company will do!
Loss
SF/Ariz over 39 – the 49ers defense won’t be as stout without Willis. Arizona likes to throw the ball which is the way to move the ball against SF. It won’t be a shootout, but I definitely feel the game will go over this total. Win

San Diego -7 – Are the Chargers finally out of their season long funk? If so, they are starting the run late. THis is more a fade against the Bills terrible defense. They haven’t been scoring a lot of points, so the Chargers 30+ points should be plenty to cover this. Win

NY Giants +3.5 – Two up and down teams that I normally like to stay away from. I feel the Giants pass rush will be the difference. Romo, like most qb’s, struggles under pressure. The team that gets the better pass rush will win. I vote Giants. Win

This week: 5-2
Season: 42-36-3

We’re slipping late in the season. Time to build up a bankroll in time for the playoffs.

Tennessee +2.5 – Buffalo can’t stop anyone. And without Fred Jackson, they lack the firepower to outscore teams. You won’t need the points in this one. Tennessee wins by 10. Win

Chicago -7 – Bears are good, KC is not. Enough said. This should be a rout. Loss

Oakland +3 – Dolphins aren’t a good team and Oakland may get a shot in the arm with Run DMC returning. He and Bush will make a lethal combo. Loss

Indianapolis +20.5 – Indy’s weaknesses are New England’s strengths, so this deserves to be a blowout. However, I have never seen a line this high and NFL players should have professional pride and be insulted by this. Somehow, Indy is going to keep this close, but I’m not sure how. I just know. Win

This week: 2-2
Season: 37-34-3

Green Bay -7 – If the Giants thought it was tough stopping New Orleans last week, have fun with Green Bay! Only a strong pass rush can keep this close. No Osi will make that difficult. The home crowd could help. Green Bay moves to 12-0

Happy Turkey weekend to everyone! Let’s feast on the bookies and take them out this weekend.

GB/Det under 56 – Two high powered offenses against mediocre defenses. Green Bay often struggles in detroit and their offensive line has been shaky the past few weeks. I see Detroit getting a lot of pressure on Rodgers taking away the deep passes. Stafford has had slow starts and big second halfs. If you can bet half times, I’d definitely pound the first half under. It takes a lot to go right for an NFL game to go over 56 points. The percentages are with you taking the under. Win

NY Jets -9 – The Bills have had very little offense this year, and what offense they’ve had has been Fred Jackson. The Jets have trouble scoring too, but nobody has had trouble scoring against the bills. I see a 20-3 type game in this one. Loss

Cincinnati -7.5 – The Bengals have proven they are a playoff caliber team with their close games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore the past 2 weeks. I’m a little concerned they are beat up after playing these physical teams. Cleveland has trouble getting points on the board, so as long as the Bengals can put up 18 points, you should be safe. Loss

Atlanta -9.5 (added Sunday morning) Atlanta is a great home team and Minnesota is lacking fire power to score with them. With no secondary, Matt Ryan and Roddy White should have a field day! Win

Chicago +5.5 – The Bears have won because of their defense, special teams and Matt Forte. They may miss Cutler a little, but as long as Hanie doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bears should keep their win streak alive. Win

Wash/Seattle under 37.5 – Seattle’s defense is tough to score on at home. Washington has a tough time scoring, as does Seattle. This game will have plenty of running and could be over in less than 3 hours. First team to 10 should win. Loss

Pittsburgh -10.5 – Kansas City has nothing left. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and has plenty to play for. Look for another rout of the Chiefs. Loss

NY Giants +7 – The way to beat the Saints is to be physical and get a pass rush. This is the Giants MO. I think they win this one outright. Their offense is up and down, so I try to stay away from their games, but since they are getting a TD, even a bad game by Eli won’t prevent a cover in this one. Loss

This week: 3-5
Season: 35-32-3