It doesn’t get much worse than last week. Not only were we wrong on most every game, but the games weren’t even close! I feel so bad that I’m giving out this week’s picks for free. =) Good news is we had a big cushion built up so we’re still doing OK for the season.

NY Jets -6.5 (Thursday) – Fading Tebow as always. Although he got us our only win last week. Under could be a good play as well, as I don’t see the Bronco’s scoring more than 10. Loss

Cin/Balt under 40.5 – Two very good defensive teams with mediocre offenses. Both play fairly conservative with a lot of runs and not many deep passes. It’s getting to that time of year where high winds will affect a lot of totals as well. Loss

Car/Det over 47.5 – Newton has struggled lately, but I’m not concerned about that. The Panthers have been giving up a ton of points this year. Just what Stafford and company need to forget about Sunday’s debacle. WIn

TB/GB over 48.5 – Packers offense can’t be stopped. Freeman lit up the Packers in his NFL debut. I’m not buying into the Packers defense after one good outing on Monday. Win

Atlanta -6 Matty Ice at home..what more needs to be said? Chris Johnson is starting to come around, but the Titans don’t have the fire power to stay with Atlanta’s high scoring offense. Push

New England -15 (Monday) It’s Tyler Palko, not Shane Falco of the Replacements. KC’s bad season just got worse with the loss of Cassell. I didn’t see Palko throw any balls down field when he came in last week. It was all dump off passes. Blowout city! Win

This week: 3-2-1
Season: 32-27-3

The train keeps on picking up speed after last week’s 5-1 record. We are now up to 60% on the season for NFL. Time to get greedy and go for 65%. Last week, we liked a lot of totals. This week, is an underdog week.

Cincinnati +3 The Bengals have a good history against pittsburg and they’ve proven to me they are for real with all the road wins they’ve achieved. Pittsburg is coming off a tough loss to their big rival and Roethlisberger is a turnover machine. Loss

Denver +3 I can’t believe that they continue to think Tebow is an NFL quarterback, but despite his terrible passing skills, I’m taking them this week. KC is a very bad team and has shown it week in and week out. A healthy McGahee helps the Broncos offense tremendously. Tebow finds a way to win despite his lack of skill. Win

Buffalo +5.5 I’ve had good luck calling upsets the past few weeks and this is my upset for this week. The Bills give up yards, but get turnovers. Dallas likes to turn the ball over. The Bills are definitely a good team and Dallas is a media team, not a good football team. Loss

Tampa Bay +3 Houston has beaten up on bad teams. Arian Foster has been enough to carry the offense against these bad teams. Without Andre johnson, the Texans will struggle against a good team like Tampa Bay. The fact that Houston is favored on the road is puzzling to me. Take the points to the bank when you collect on this one. Loss

Detroit +3 Detroit is the better team, and even when they were a bad team, they always gave the Bears fits. Chicago has come on the past few weeks thanks to their running game. It’s not easy to run against Detroit. Look for Calvin Johnson to have another big game as the Lions win and get another step closer to the playoffs. Loss

NY Giants +3.5 Another dog that I feel will win outright. San Fran is a solid team, but they haven’t had to play anyone except for Detroit. The Giants thrive on the road. They are a better team than Dallas, who is the only one to defeat the Niners so far. Loss

Minnesota +13.5 (Monday night) The Packers have an even bigger bullseye on their back now that they are the lone undefeated team. A rivalry game on national tv is never an easy task. I expect Green Bay to win, but it will be closer than people think. Loss

This week: 1-6
Season: 29-25-2

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Went 4-2 for our 4th straight winning week, but easily could have been 6-0 as both Baltimore and San Diego dominated their games, but turned the ball over a lot which kept their games close. Hopefully November is as good as October was for us.

Atlanta -7 – Matty Ice and company should have a field day against the Colts secondary just like everyone else has. Indy has a good pass rush at home, but as long as Atlanta doesn’t turn the ball over in their own zone, they should have no problem covering this number. Win

Miami/KC under 40 – Neither team has put up a lot of points this year and both have solid defenses. As long as there aren’t 2 or more def/special teams td’s, the under is a safe play. Rain may come into play as well, helping our cause. Win

SF/Wash under 38 – Typically, Washington would be our play with SF going coast to coast for an early game. However, I’m not sure if Washington can score after their performance in Canada last week. First team to 10 should win this. Win

NYG/NE over 51 – Lock this in early if you can, because I assume this will be a public play raising the total. Neither team has a good secondary, so as long as Brady has time to throw, this will be a shootout. Giants could be a good play as well, but we don’t want to sweat that out. Loss

Green Bay/San Diego over 51 – Since I’ll be attending this game, I had to include it in our weekly picks. Seriously…both teams can score and neither secondary is very strong. Only good pass rushes or poor red zone execution can keep this total below 60. Win

Chicago +8 (play of the week) – One good game by the Eagles against a poor Dallas team and the odds makers are back on their band wagon. The Eagles still can’t stop the run, so look for Forte to have a field day. I’d pick the Bears to win outright if their offensive line was a little better pass protecting. I also can’t trust Martz to stick to the run. Last week Dallas gave up on the run, even though Murray averaged 9 ypc on only 8 carries.
WIN

This week: 5-1
Season: 28-19-2

Last week we had our 3rd straight winning week with a 4-2 record to bring our season total up to 19-16-2. Just like last year, we started slow and are coming on strong. Maybe we should wait 4 or 5 weeks next year before posting picks? What fun would that be?

Min/Car under 48 – Carolina has been in a shoot out every week. Newton and company are tough to stop. I just don’t see Minnesota being able to score 20+ against this defense and I doubt Carolina will get more than 28. WIN

Baltimore -13 – Monday they ran into a buzzsaw Jags defense. Rice should tear apart the Cardinals defense. Baltimore may win by 30. LOSS

Detroit -3 – Tim Tebow stinks, and he proved it last week. The Lions will be too far ahead for Tebow to will his team to victory. Without McGahee to run the ball, the Broncos will have a tough time moving the ball. WIN

Cle/SF under 38.5 – Cleveland showed last week, they don’t have much of an offense. They will face a tougher defense this week. San Fran doesn’t have the type of offense to get 30 points, so I feel confident in this over. Add to that the tough wind conditions usually found in SF. WIN

Philadelphia -3.5 – Reid never loses after a bye week. The Eagles, as over hyped as they are, still have a much better team than Dallas. Vick should have a field day against the Cowboys secondary. As long as the Eagles slow down the shooting star known as DeMarco Murray, they should come out on top. WIN

San Diego -3.5 (play of the week) – Get this line in early, because it’s bound to be a public play. San Diego has been, and still are the class of the NFC West. KC had a perfect storm last week facing 2 qb’s who weren’t ready to be on an NFL field. San Diego is burning from their loss to the Jets when they failed to show up in the 2nd half. Look for Rivers to regain his old form. LOSS

This week: 4-2
Overall: 23-18-2

We kept the winning trend going last week (4-2) and are now above .500 for the year. Tough week this week.

Wash/Car under 43.5 – two solid defenses. Beck getting his first start of the year will cause issued for the Skins offense. Games on grass are a slower pace and both teams like to run. LOSS

SD/NYJ over 43.5 – Weather concerns me some. Beware of high winds if you play this. Dolphins had receivers open a lot of the game Monday, but Matt Moore is not an NFL qb and the Dolphins wr’s aren’t so hot. Chargers are back to full strength this week. Jets should be able to put up at least 17 against San Diego’s average defense. WIN

Tenn -3 – Still fading Houston with Johnson and Williams out. Their offense is just average without him and the defense may be below average without a pass rush. Look for Chris Johnson to have his legs back and give you his 2nd 100 yard game of the season. LOSS

KC +5 – Been a lot of buzz around the Raiders lately. They are winning thanks to defense and McFadden. Al Davis’ death has also brought added attention. Now this week, they give up way to much (in my opinion) for Carson Palmer. Carson updates their talent at qb, but doesn’t necessarily make them better. I like KC to win outright this week. Coming off a bye and their passing game is producing lately which is the Raiders defensive weakness. Only a huge game from McFadden (possible) will allow the Raiders to win. Palmer doesn’t know enough of the playbook to be effective. WIN

Pittsburgh -4 – Don’t like laying more than a fg on the road in the NFL, however I just can’t help it. Pittsburgh is always supposed to be good and Arizona bad. Probably a trap game, but this mouse likes cheese. WIN

Dallas -13 – Rams secondary is banged up and not good. Dallas is back to full strength at WR with Austin and Bryant back. I look for Dallas to put up over 30 this week and St Louis wouldn’t be able to match this with a healthy bradford. With a gimpy bradford or a terrible AJ Feely, the Rams could be shut out. Blowout city! WIN

This week: 4-2
Season: 19-16-2

Finally had a few breaks go our way with last minute drives NOT resulting in TD’s to cost us money. Overall record is now 11-12-2 after last week’s 3-2 record.

Phil -1.5 (play of the week) – Vick and crew are sick of losing. Redskins can run the ball, but not well enough to outscore the eagles. As ugly as the Eagles defense has been this year, this one could be just as ugly for the Redskins. WIN

Detroit -4.5 – this is a prime spot for a Detroit let down, but I think SF has the worse spot. They were on the east coast two weeks in a row…home for one…now back in the eastern time zone. Most importantly, their offensive line can’t contain the Lions front 4 and they are also short on WR’s. Look for the Detroit bandwagon to keep rolling on.
LOSS
Car/Atl over 50.5 – Carolina has been in shootouts every week. Falcons lost Julio Jones, but still have plenty of weapons on offense. LOSS

Balt -8 - Houston will continue to struggle without their top WR. Now they must also deal with the loss of Mario Williams. Houston’s dream season is being bombarded with injuries. Look for the Ravens and Ray Rice to roll. WIN

Tampa Bay +4.5 – Saints are on their 3rd straight road trip, which is never an easy thing for NFL teams to do. The Saints are also much worse on grass. Tampa has a lot to prove after being humbled by the 49ers last week when they had short rest. I believe Tampa will win outright. WIN

Mia/NYJ under 42.5 – Miami has no punch on offense, which is what the Jets defense will prey upon. I don’t see the Jets scoring more than 35, so as much as I like the Jets, I think the under is the better play in case the Jets stagnant offense continues. WIN

This week: 4-2
overall: 15-14-2

With 6 teams on bye and a lot of close games, this week has turned into an over/under week.

Oakland +6 – Jason Campbell has been playing well, and now he has his full arsenal with Ford, Moore and Heyward-Bey all healthy. McFadden is still their best player and will get most of the touches, but the speed on the outside will be set up for some big plays. Houston plays their first game without Andre Johnson, so unless Foster runs wild, their offense will probably struggle.
WIN
Tennessee/Pittsburgh under 39.5 – this number is much higher than I expected, which worries me a little. Two pretty conservative offenses and both with solid defenses. Pittsburgh is banged up and has struggled against the run, so with the under, you hope Tennessee gets an early lead and gets even more conservative.
LOSS
San Francisco -3 (play of the day) – Tampa has a short rest week and has to travel cross country. That’s enough for me. Add to it that the 49ers are playing well and are buying what Jim Harbaugh is selling WIN

Green Bay/Atlanta over 53 – The Packers offense is unstoppable, especially on turf. Atlanta has plenty of weapons to take advantage of the Packers inexperience at safety. There were a ton of points in last years playoff game, and I don’t expect anything different in this one
LOSS
Chicago/Detroit under 47.5 – Bears got the running game going last week which led to a high point total. They won’t be able to run on Detroit. That means a long day for Cutler. The cover 2 should slow down Detroit enough to keep this under the number. WIN

This week: 3-2
Season: 11-12-2

We had a nice rebound last week winning a few close ones for a 4-1 record. This week we look to go back above .500 and keep making money.

Chicago -6 – Newton has been impressive, but against the cover 2 of the Bears, you need accuracy and patience. Newton has struggled when teams drop 7-8, so it could be a long day for him. Under may be the better play, but we’re taking the Bears who are a strong home team. LOSS

New Orleans -7 – Saints offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Even though MJD may have a big day on the ground, Jacksonville doesn’t have the offensive fire power to stick with the Saints. WIN

Philadelphia -9 – This team is over hyped, and there’s a definitely game plan to limit Vick. Bring a lot of rushers from the outside and hit him often. He’s starting to hear footsteps in the pocket. However, the 49ers o-line is swiss cheese and Smith is the qb that will be running for his life. Gore is their only play maker and he’s banged up. Look for the Eagles to start living up to the hype with an easy win at home. LOSS

St Louis +2.5 – I like home dogs. The Rams have played decent against a very tough schedule. The skins are coming off a tough Monday night loss and are playing a non-division foe, so it’s not an important game for them. Look for the young Rams to bring home the victory.
LOSS
New England -5 (play of the week) – Brady is drooling over the weak secondary of Oakland. As long as his o-line gives him average protection, he will carve apart this secondary. McFadden could stay hot and keep Brady off the field. However, New England is often tough coming off a loss and Oakland is not good enough to beat a focused Bellicheck team.
WIN

This week: 2-3
Overall: 8-10-2

Now that a few weeks are in the books, trends start showing in the NFL. With some tough luck and some erroneous picks, we are 2-6-2 for the season. Plenty of time to get your money back and then some.

Minnesota +3.5 (play of the day) - Detroit has been the better team so far, but do they really deserve to be road favorites? Queens are still a good home team and McNabb should be getting comfortable with the new system WIN

Miami +2.5 – Last year Miami was unbeatable on the road and couldn’t win at home. So far this year, they couldn’t win at home. Let’s hope last years trend continues. Cleveland is an improving team, but still a very beatable team
WIN

New Orleans -4 – After a year recovering from their Super Bowl hangover, the high powered offense of the Saints appears to be back. Houston is a team a like a lot this year with the moves they made on defense, but I’m not sure if their offense is clicking enough to score with the Saints.
WIN
NY Jets/Oakland under 41.5 – Neither team has a strong offense, mainly because both offensive lines are banged up. They both have very good defenses. The offenses will have trouble scoring, so as long as the defense/special teams doesn’t score 14+ points, the under should be a safe play. LOSS

Balt/StL over 41.5 – Ravens have a high powered offense and St Louis should put up some points at home. Baltimore’s secondary is banged up, so I see a lot of passing in this game. WIN

This week: 4-1
overall: 6-7-2

We started in a hole with a 0-4-1 week, although we had a chance to win all of them up until the final whistle. We’re confident that at least 4 of this weeks picks will be winners.

Washington -4 loss

Green Bay -10 loss

Pittsbugh -14 (play of the week) win

Indianapolis +2 (we suggest you take the ML) loss

Dallas -3 push

this week 1-3-1
season: 2-6-2