Bookie Hit Men » NFL Office Pool Picks

NFL Wildcard Week

saw111671 — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 07:31:43 +0000

The playoffs are about to start, and I’ve decided to do a writeup for each game of this playoffs and will make plays on each game. I will assign the plays as 1-2-3 units. 1 unit plays mean I’m just making a pick because I have to. 2 unit plays mean I lean towards the pick, but not super confident. 3 unit plays means it’s a solid play and I’d put a lot of my own money on the line for it.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-4, o/u 38)

This is a tough one to call, because both teams have rookie qb’s. Cincinnati has the advantage that Dalton has started all season, and he is not phased by a big stage. Yates is a completely unknown as he’s not asked to do much, and he really hasn’t done much. Houston has made it this far based on running the ball and playing good defense. I give them a slight edge because of this. Neither team has a recent playoff track record, so I just like the under.

Houston -4 (1 unit) under 38 (3 units) Win/Loss net -2.3

Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5, o/u 59.5)

Everyone is expecting a shootout. Last time these two played, it was only 38-17. Detroit played well, but hurt themselves with foolish penalties. New Orleans took advantage and pulled away late. As they showed last week against Green Bay, Detroit has a brutal secondary. If their front 4 can’t create pressure, it will be a field day for Brees. Detroit has not won against a good team this year, and they have struggled scoring points in those games (with the exception of last week against Green Bay who sat Woodson and Matthews). New Orleans could score 40 if they want to. I don’t see Detroit getting 20. The total is a ridiculously high number for any game, much less a playoff game.

New Orleans -10.5 (2 units) under 59.5 (3 units) Win/Loss net -1.3

Atlanta @ NY Giants (-3, o/u 47.5)

I see this game as being a shootout. Atlanta does not have a very good defense and the Giants have plenty of offensive weapons to exploit the weak defense. Atlanta has only played 3 outdoor games this year, losing to Chicago and Tampa and beating Carolina. All of these road games had warm temperatures. The Giants are getting healthy on the defensive front line which should give Ryan credit. The public appears to be on Atlanta, but the Falcons have not shown me anything since getting blown out at home in the playoffs last season.

NY Giants (2 units) over 47.5 (3 units) Win/Loss -1.3

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+8.5, o/u 33.5)

This is quite the interesting match up. The public knows how bad Tebow is at qb, and Pittsburgh has the reputation of having a great defense, so you expect a blowout. The home team being a huge underdog shows that. However, this line has actually moved down during the week. Which means the smart bettors like me, are going with Denver. Pittsburgh has a great pass defense because of their complicated blitz schemes. However, they are just average against the run. And due to a freak blood disorder, they’ll be missing their hard hitting safety and unsung hero of the defense, Ryan Clark. Add to that the loss of Mendenhall and a gimpy Big Ben. The Steelers will have to throw the ball to win. I don’t think Denver will have trouble scoring points as long as McGahee stays healthy all game. I’m still not convinced Denver can win, but it wouldn’t surprise me. This is very similar to the New Orleans/Seattle game last year in the first round when Seattle pulled off the big upset.

Denver +8.5 (2 units) over 33.5 (2 units) Win/Win +4

Wild card record: 5-3
units won/lost: -0.9

NFL week 10

saw111671 — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 05:03:20 +0000

The train keeps on picking up speed after last week’s 5-1 record. We are now up to 60% on the season for NFL. Time to get greedy and go for 65%. Last week, we liked a lot of totals. This week, is an underdog week.

Cincinnati +3 The Bengals have a good history against pittsburg and they’ve proven to me they are for real with all the road wins they’ve achieved. Pittsburg is coming off a tough loss to their big rival and Roethlisberger is a turnover machine. Loss

Denver +3 I can’t believe that they continue to think Tebow is an NFL quarterback, but despite his terrible passing skills, I’m taking them this week. KC is a very bad team and has shown it week in and week out. A healthy McGahee helps the Broncos offense tremendously. Tebow finds a way to win despite his lack of skill. Win

Buffalo +5.5 I’ve had good luck calling upsets the past few weeks and this is my upset for this week. The Bills give up yards, but get turnovers. Dallas likes to turn the ball over. The Bills are definitely a good team and Dallas is a media team, not a good football team. Loss

Tampa Bay +3 Houston has beaten up on bad teams. Arian Foster has been enough to carry the offense against these bad teams. Without Andre johnson, the Texans will struggle against a good team like Tampa Bay. The fact that Houston is favored on the road is puzzling to me. Take the points to the bank when you collect on this one. Loss

Detroit +3 Detroit is the better team, and even when they were a bad team, they always gave the Bears fits. Chicago has come on the past few weeks thanks to their running game. It’s not easy to run against Detroit. Look for Calvin Johnson to have another big game as the Lions win and get another step closer to the playoffs. Loss

NY Giants +3.5 Another dog that I feel will win outright. San Fran is a solid team, but they haven’t had to play anyone except for Detroit. The Giants thrive on the road. They are a better team than Dallas, who is the only one to defeat the Niners so far. Loss

Minnesota +13.5 (Monday night) The Packers have an even bigger bullseye on their back now that they are the lone undefeated team. A rivalry game on national tv is never an easy task. I expect Green Bay to win, but it will be closer than people think. Loss

This week: 1-6
Season: 29-25-2

NFL week 8

saw111671 — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 21:45:28 +0000

Last week we had our 3rd straight winning week with a 4-2 record to bring our season total up to 19-16-2. Just like last year, we started slow and are coming on strong. Maybe we should wait 4 or 5 weeks next year before posting picks? What fun would that be?

Min/Car under 48 – Carolina has been in a shoot out every week. Newton and company are tough to stop. I just don’t see Minnesota being able to score 20+ against this defense and I doubt Carolina will get more than 28. WIN

Baltimore -13 – Monday they ran into a buzzsaw Jags defense. Rice should tear apart the Cardinals defense. Baltimore may win by 30. LOSS

Detroit -3 – Tim Tebow stinks, and he proved it last week. The Lions will be too far ahead for Tebow to will his team to victory. Without McGahee to run the ball, the Broncos will have a tough time moving the ball. WIN

Cle/SF under 38.5 – Cleveland showed last week, they don’t have much of an offense. They will face a tougher defense this week. San Fran doesn’t have the type of offense to get 30 points, so I feel confident in this over. Add to that the tough wind conditions usually found in SF. WIN

Philadelphia -3.5 – Reid never loses after a bye week. The Eagles, as over hyped as they are, still have a much better team than Dallas. Vick should have a field day against the Cowboys secondary. As long as the Eagles slow down the shooting star known as DeMarco Murray, they should come out on top. WIN

San Diego -3.5 (play of the week) – Get this line in early, because it’s bound to be a public play. San Diego has been, and still are the class of the NFC West. KC had a perfect storm last week facing 2 qb’s who weren’t ready to be on an NFL field. San Diego is burning from their loss to the Jets when they failed to show up in the 2nd half. Look for Rivers to regain his old form. LOSS

This week: 4-2
Overall: 23-18-2

NFL Week 2

saw111671 — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 20:43:53 +0000

We started in a hole with a 0-4-1 week, although we had a chance to win all of them up until the final whistle. We’re confident that at least 4 of this weeks picks will be winners.

Washington -4 loss

Green Bay -10 loss

Pittsbugh -14 (play of the week) win

Indianapolis +2 (we suggest you take the ML) loss

Dallas -3 push

this week 1-3-1
season: 2-6-2

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