Bookie Hit Men

college hoops 2/4/12

saw111671 — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 07:30:48 +0000

Time to get back on the money train. Today is going to be a good day!

Notre Dame +1

Vanderbilt +6.5

Virginia/Florida St under 115.5 (play of the day)

Central Michigan +14

Louisville -10.5

Middle Tennessee St PK

Davidson -15

Oregon St -13

Creighton -1.5

Bowling Green -17.5

South Carolina +12

Tennessee Martin +17.5

Nevada -10.5

Today: 0-0
Season: 201-207-8
POTD: 28-31-2

Super Bowl Predictions

saw111671 — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:15:18 +0000

It’s been a successful post season so far even though some of our bigger plays have not come through. So far we are 13-7 for +5.3 units. Here are my thoughts on the big game:

Despite their win over Baltimore, I’m still a New England doubter. Their lack of defense and lack of a down the field offense will finally catch up to them. Gronkowski not being 100% doesn’t help them either.
I don’t expect the Giants to get a ton of hits on Brady because he gets rid of the ball so quick. However, I do expect the Giants to knock the Patriot receivers off their routes just as they did with the Packers. I don’t see New England scoring more than 21, and I definitely don’t see their defense holding the Giants under 27.

My prediction: NY Giants 34 New England 17 (3 units on NYG ML +115) 1 unit under 54

The best way to make money on the Super Bowl is through proposition bets. If you take your time and look through them, you can find some good value bets. Especially in the cross-sport props.
I didn’t post any prop plays last year because my beloved Packers were in the big game and I was busy working on getting tickets to Dallas. However, in the 2 previous years, I went 8-2 (4-1 each year) on my posted prop plays. Here are my best value plays for this year (odds according to sportsbook.com)

1> Ray Allen made 3 pts +.5 over Brady td passes…even money
As you can tell with my game writeup, I don’t expect a lot out of Brady, At most, he will get 3 TD passes. Ray Allen averages over 2 made 3′s per game and can easily go off for 5 or 6. If he does that, this prop is a lock. Even if he only gets 2, you may win and at worst get a push. Since his return from injury, Allen has 8 3′s in 3 games. Only 3 times this year has he had only 1 made 3. I love props like this one, where you can have it wrapped up before the Super Bowl even starts.

2> Will Ochocinco catch a pass? YES …even money
It’s been nice seeing Chad fail this season. However, New England needs a deep threat, and I imagine they will have a few set plays for Chad to get down the field. Let’s just hope he catches one of them. I don’t expect him to play a lot, but I do expect him to be a mini factor. He also wouldn’t be a bad option if you want to bet on the first TD at his 40:1 odds.

3> Shortest TD over 1.5 yds …+115
Both teams are passing teams, so I doubt there will be any short yardage situations from the 1 yd line. The only way this will happen is if there’s a pass interference in the end zone. If it does come down to short yardage, I like Wilfork’s ability to penetrate to prevent the Giants from getting a short TD. I’m not worried about the Pats getting a 1 yd td. The +115 on this side is what makes it a top 5 play for me.

4> Deion Branch over 3 receptions …-105
Deion comes up big in the big games. He’s a security blanket for Brady and with all the focus on Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker, Deion should get some favorable match ups. He’s a fomer super bowl MVP and he’s had 2 weeks to let his sore groin heal. I also like the prop of over 40.5 yds for him, but that has more juice, so my play is on his receptions.

5> under 4 total sacks …+120
I’ve seen this total at 4.5 in some places, which makes this an even better play. However, I’ll take the +120 with the risk of 4 sacks being a push. The Patriots lack a pass rush, so I don’t see them getting any more than 1 sack. The Giants have a great pass rush, but with New England’s double TE sets and Brady’s quick reads, I don’t think they will get to Brady.

Good luck on the game! I run my own proposition pool on the game, so if you’re interested in joining, send me an email at saw111671@yahoo.com

college hoops 2/1/12

saw111671 — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 21:56:29 +0000

January ended with a big fizzle. Just when we saw the light, more dirt got thrown on top of us.

Richmond -2 Loss

Akron -12.5 (play of the day) Win

UConn/Gtown over 129.5 Loss

Indiana St -6 Win

St Bonaventure +10 Loss

Today: 2-3
Season: 201-207-8
POTD: 28-31-2

college hoops 1/29/12

saw111671 — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 06:26:00 +0000

Instead of a big exclamation point to a big week, we lost a lot of close ones and took it in the shorts. Back on the saddle!

Connecticut -8.5 (play of the day) Loss

Fairfield -15.5 Win

Michigan +13.5 Loss

North Carolina -21.5 Loss

Oregon -1 Loss

Today: 1-4
Season: 199-204-8
POTD: 27-31-2

college hoops 1/27/12

saw111671 — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 05:02:52 +0000

A fourth straight winning day and our POTD losing streak ended. Still not where we want to be overall, but making progress.

St Johns +18 Win

Clemson -11 Push

Vaploraiso +6 WIn

Vanderbilt -8.5 (play of the day) Loss

Boise St PK Loss

Georgetown +1 Loss

Kentucky -9.5 Win

Duquesne -2.5 Loss

Mississippi -5.5 Loss

Richmond +4.5 Loss

Illinois/Minnesota under 127 Loss

Today: 3-7-1
Season: 198-200-8
POTD: 27-30-2

college hoops 1/27/12

saw111671 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:23:20 +0000

We kept our winning week going with a 3rd straight winning day. However, in all 3 days, our POTD has lost. Seems like when the POTD loses, every other pick wins. 9-2 the last two nights with the only losses being the POTD.

Detroit -15.5 Loss

Siena -8.5 Win

Iona -2 (play of the day) Win

Today: 2-1
Season: 195-193-7
POTD: 27-29-2

college hoops 1/26/12

saw111671 — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 21:32:55 +0000

Our 2nd winning night in a row, but a few late losses just made it a small victory. One more winning day and it’s a winning streak!

Western Kentucky +11 Win

North Carolina -13.5 Win

Florida -5 (play of the day) Loss

UW-Milwaukee -3.5 Win

Denver -12.5 Win

Indiana +8 Win

UCLA -22 Win

Today: 6-1
Season: 193-192-7
POTD: 26-29-2

college hoops 1/25/12

saw111671 — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:02:32 +0000

Started the week with a winning night, despite losing our POTD. I picked a bad time to get off the Vandy bandwagon.

Ohio St -21.5 Win

Florida St -8 Win

Providence +10 Loss

Detroit -14.5 Win

Virginia Tech -2 (play of the day) Loss

Seton Hall -7 Loss

Creighton -5.5 Win

Michigan St -9 Win

Maryland +11 Loss

Today: 5-4
Season: 187-191-7
POTD: 26-28-2

college hoops 1/24/12

saw111671 — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 19:36:41 +0000

A late comeback Saturday prevented another horrendous day for us Saturday. Been a rough 10 days, but it’s a long season.

Michigan/Purdue over 126. Win

Tennessee +9 (play of the day) Loss

Marquette -10.5 Win

Baylor -5.5 Win

Today: 3-1
Season: 182-187-7
POTD: 26-27-2

NFL Division Championships

saw111671 — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 00:22:49 +0000

Last week, we once again went 5-3, but only won a few units because we lost some of our big ones. That also includes my last minute switch from the Giants to the Packers. Oops.

Baltimore @ New England (-7, o/u 50.5)

They say defense wins championships, but I feel you need to be able to score points to win championships. However, no matter how good the offense, you can’t get away with a bad defense. The Packers were a prime example last week and this week, New England will show that.
I like Baltimore to win outright this week on the back of Ray Rice. He had trouble going against the tough Houston defense, but he should have a field day against New England. As he goes, so does the offense. If New England chooses to stack the box, then Flacco has Boldin, Evans and Smith on the outside to make them pay. I’m not a big fan of Joe Flacco, but I trust him not to turn the ball over, allowing the Ravens to win with their defense.

My Pick: Baltimore +7 (3 units), under 50.5 (2 units) Win/WIn +5 units

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-2, o/u 42)

Like the Packers last year, the Giants have momentum, a strong offense, and a play making defense. Not even a very successful San Fran team can stop them. The two things I like most in the playoffs are momentum and experience. San Fran is probably just happy to escape last week with a big win over New Orleans. They did their celebrating. The Giants took their win over Green Bay in stride and realize that’s not a big accomplishment. The Super Bowl is the accomplishment they want.
San Fran’s only chance is to get pressure on Eli. Something the Packers rarely did, but when they did, he struggled. I don’t trust Alex Smith, and he lacks the weapons to work with. You stop Davis and slow down Gore and they will have trouble scoring.

My Pick: NY Giants +2 (2 units), over 42 (1 unit) Win/Lose +0.9

Championship round: 3-1 +5.9 units
Playoffs: 13-7
Units: +5.3 units